February 1. Our January stats are far from being updated. We likely won’t have complete numbers for at least another week. But I had to peak anyway. And the numbers are remarkably positive so far. Keeping in mind that in the first week after a month, sales continue to be entered, and thus numbers only improve, we still have good and happy graphs to push out there.
Above are the sales and inventory numbers for Feb 2011 through Jan 2013. What this marks is the first time in a long time that we have seen 12 straight months of increased year-over-year sales growth and inventory reduction. While the January chart may look like sales are slightly down, that is a graphical anomaly I blame on shading. As of today, we have one more sale in detached homes in Jan 2013 than in Jan 2012. (Small, yes… but still growth.)
Over the last twelve months, the increase in sales reflects a more than 20% increase for City and Albemarle. A shift from 1002 to 1214 sales.
Compared that with the attached home market, where the twelve months ending yesterday look promising with a total increase in sales in the City and Albemarle of roughly 9.7%. But that doesn’t really tell the whole story. When you look at month by month movement for the last 12 months, you find only 8 periods of year-over-year growth. In general, the overall trend is positive, but the trajectory is not nearly as clear. Additionally, the attached home inventory is 5% higher than it was at this time last year, and that brought the months of inventory up by a month and a half to 13.9 months.
The condo market moved similarly to the attached home market. Total sales over the year were up 14.9%, but that reflected only 8 months of year-over-year growth. (The condo market, however, is very small and thus new projects, lower prices on existing projects, etc… can sway the numbers months to month greatly.)
As a final quick note, Contract Written. In Jan 2011, we saw 71 contracts written on detached homes. In 2012, that number jumped to 102. This past month, we have records of 98 thus far. This is a big jump. The reason for this is that the way in which our MLS keeps records, many properties are Contingent for more than 2 weeks before they are moved to the Pending status. It is not until that time that they get a Contract Written Date that we can track. If you figure the average closing is 45 days, and 15 of those days are not accounted for, that is as much as 30% of deals. So, it is possibile that our 98 may go up to 120-130 before all is said an done. Of course it could go up to only 110… we can’t know. There are currently 126 properties under contract that do not have Contract Written dates. Not all from January to be sure.
No matter how you look at it, our numbers are still looking very strong, and the anecdotal evidence seen by real estate professionals supports that this is not likely to change in the short run.