• Accurate Pricing

    We meet with sellers all the time and make estimates on price. We really do our best to provide guidance on what a house is worth. It is a fascinating art. But what we try to stress over and over is that pricing right is not about finding the estimate and trying to get 5% Read More

  • More on City Assessments

    I requested from the City a breakdown of all residential assessments for 2013 and the adjustments by neighborhood. They were kind enough to respond very quickly. I have reformatted what they sent to me, and thought I would pass it along here. Below, you will find the 22 Neighborhoods that saw decreases in 2013 assessments Read More

  • Value of Tax Value

    The City of Charlottesville released their 2013 tax assessments this week. Mailings have been sent to home owners, and the web site has been updated to reflect the changes. Assessments cause all kinds of a ruckus. There is an erroneous perception that prices should instantly adjust to match these new numbers. Nothing could be further Read More

  • Twelve Straight

    February 1. Our January stats are far from being updated. We likely won’t have complete numbers for at least another week. But I had to peak anyway. And the numbers are remarkably positive so far. Keeping in mind that in the first week after a month, sales continue to be entered, and thus numbers only Read More

  • Vacant Showings

    I went out yesterday and showed 5 properties to buyer clients. Nothing odd about that. Except that, for the first time in my recent memory, all the properties were vacant, and none were new construction. Hmmm. My partner Jim Duncan has written about this phenomenon in the past, and I have certainly commented on it. But, frankly, Read More

  • 2012 Year End Report

      We released our 2012 Year End Report today, and it is a very different report from the past. The format will look familiar but the content seems almost opposite from the past. Since 2009 when we first formed Nest and started putting out the region’s most complete and authoritative study of the market, we have Read More

  • Screaming Quarter

    Much talk has begun about what this year will hold. If the 4th quarter of 2012 is any indication, it should be a monster of a year. With all the data we process, I am getting more and more optimistic about what I see. The 4th quarter of 2012 was the strongest ending of a Read More

Accurate Pricing

We meet with sellers all the time and make estimates on price. We really do our best to provide guidance on what a house is worth. It is a fascinating art.

But what we try to stress over and over is that pricing right is not about finding the estimate and trying to get 5% more, to provide wiggle room. It’s a natural reaction for a seller. If we ask 5% more, we can always come down. If we price low, we leave money on the table. While this may make sense, it is not accurate in reality.

I have a buyer client who is currently attempting to buy a home. This home is priced right. I would certainly not say I think it is priced too low. I don’t think it is priced too high. What I will say is that it is realistic. We made an offer, a very good offer I felt… but guess what… so did someone else. End Result, we just sent a second offer that upped our initial one by 4.5%… Meaning, the seller is going to land up selling their house for MORE than asking, and in less than a week on the market.

Isn’t this what sellers want? If the seller had asked 5% more than they did, I don’t know that my clients would have fallen in love. They fell in love at the asking price… they were willing to pay more, but they fell in love at asking. If the seller had asked more, and my client’s focus had been at the higher number, there would have been a higher comparison. Perhaps there would have not been an offer, or only one offer. No one to push the other up.

Houses priced fairly are moving very, very quickly in the city. Properties that are priced high, are getting very little attention. Why negotiate with someone who is being unrealistic, when you have options with fair sellers?

On the buyer side… be prepared for a battle. Be prepared to offer quickly and a fair number. Gone are the days of you being the only buyer on a property. Gone are the days of stealing a home. This doesn’t mean you need to offer 5% over asking everything, but it does mean that if you think you can slow play an offer and hope to dance to the middle ground, someone else will be willing to do better. If you really want a house, don’t risk dilly dallying. It’s not always worth walking away.

More on City Assessments

I requested from the City a breakdown of all residential assessments for 2013 and the adjustments by neighborhood. They were kind enough to respond very quickly. I have reformatted what they sent to me, and thought I would pass it along here.

Below, you will find the 22 Neighborhoods that saw decreases in 2013 assessments from last year. This list does not mean that EVERY property in the neighborhood was treated the same. It means that barring any new information provided to the assessor’s office, this is the adjustment due to “General Reassessment”. The other 25 neighborhoods in the City did not have any adjustments this year due to General Reassessment.

DecliningAssessments

In looking for a pattern, there is nothing that stands out. Three of the ten most expensive neighborhoods saw declines, while eight of the bottom ten saw declines. Of those top three, two were university area (although oposite sides) and one was near downtown. Of those that declined, some were detached homes and some were condos. Some were new construction (Carter’s View / Brookwood / Burnet Commons) and some were among the oldest homes in town (Fifeville / Fry’s Spring / Ix – Belmont). Every elementary school district seems to have some neighborhoods that declined and some that stayed flat.

The flip side to all of these numbers is that inventory is currently at a 7 year low in the City, and competing offers are common. The fact that the Assessor’s Office is showing a decline from 2012 is not mirrored by the current exuberance for City properties.

 

Value of Tax Value

The City of Charlottesville released their 2013 tax assessments this week. Mailings have been sent to home owners, and the web site has been updated to reflect the changes.

Assessments cause all kinds of a ruckus. There is an erroneous perception that prices should instantly adjust to match these new numbers. Nothing could be further from the truth. Reality is, this is the City’s best effort to meet state requirements to estimate the values of the parcels in the city. No one in the assessors office would argue they are perfect. I won’t go so far as to say they are even close in many cases.

There are, however, certain times when assessments should be darn easy. Like the day a home sells. If a home sells for $745,000 after being offered on the open market, and the transaction is indeed an arms length transaction, it makes total sense that the City would be able to assess that house without really thinking about it. The value at which a seller is willing to sell and a buyer is willing to buy is $745,000. That is the definition of market value. And that’s why it’s truly bizarre to see the assessment today on this house at $381,000. (Assessing this home at 51.2% of its market value.)

From the City assessors web site:

Real Estate Assessments are required by the Codes of Virginia and the City of Charlottesville to be at 100% of fair market value.  Assessments are made each year by the City Assessor’s Office and are effective January 1.

and

As required, the City’s assessment is an estimate of fair market value as of January 1 each year, based on property sales for the previous calendar year.

The City breaks down the city into neighborhoods and then samples that neighborhood to determine what is happening price wise over the course of the year. Then, barring changes to a home, they apply a % change to all the houses in that neighborhood. There are certainly some places where there is more specific work being done, but in general, this is the practice. I pulled up a sampling of 10 homes in the neighborhood that is bounded by Rugby Road, Emmett Street, Westview Road, and Wayside Place. The tax assessments I pulled changed from -4.68% to -4.7%. You can’t tell me that is an accident. So, the question is, how accurate is this practice. I would say we can bicker about whether -4.7% is the correct amount, but in general, I agree with the practice. If my neighbor’s home goes up 5% or down 3%, it is fairly accurate to say mine did too — UNLESS one of us has done improvements or allowed our house to waste away, in which case, they certainly change at different rates.

So, I focused on this one neighborhood and pulled every house that sold in 2012 to see if the new 2013 assessments were accurate for these homes. Nine homes total ranging in sales price from $367,000 to $1,250,000. How’d they do? Mixed Bag.

  • 938 Rosser Lane – Sold for $367,500 – Assessed for $443,600 – 121% of Sale Price
  • 901 Rosser Lane – Sold for $450,000 – Assessed for $449,200 – Spot On.
  • 1865 Field Road – Sold for $469,000 – Assessed for $511,900 – 109% of Sale Price
  • 1825 Edgewood Lane – Sold for $530,000 – Assessed for $734,100 – 139% of Sale Price — (NOTE: On the market for nearly a year)
  • 1859 Wayside Place – Sold for $706,000 – Assessed for $590,000 – 84% of Sale Price
  • 1863 Wayside Place – Sold for $745,000 – Assessed for $381,600 – 51% of Sale Price
  • 920 Rosser Lane – Sold for $753,000 – Assessed for $735,000 – 98% of Sale Price
  • 1872 Edgewood Lane – Sold for 890,000 – Assessed for $778,800 – 88% of Sale Price
  • 1820 Edgewood Lane – Sold for $1,250,000 – Assessed for $993,000 – 79% of Sale Price

Don’t get me wrong, I totally respect the fact that assessing homes that the City has likely never been in is extremely hard. And I respect the fact that the city has a good process. But no one can argue that a group of nine homes that all sold in the past year, arguably the easiest homes to assess, range in values compared to their sale price from 51% to 139% all in the same neighborhood is anything close to useful, valuable, or accurate.

My point here is not to say that all assessments are bad, or that we should be challenging every one. What I want people to realize is that basing listing and offering prices on City (or County) assessments is dangerous. While it can be a guide, and certainly should be considered, it has to be a single tool of many in pricing a home. We look at comps all day long. And the price you paid four years ago for your home will affect its sale price far more than the new City assessments. Prices in the Venable neighborhood did not go down 4.7% this week with the new assessments. The only thing that changed is that the taxes these home owners will pay went down by 4.7%.

 

 

Twelve Straight

February 1. Our January stats are far from being updated. We likely won’t have complete numbers for at least another week. But I had to peak anyway. And the numbers are remarkably positive so far. Keeping in mind that in the first week after a month, sales continue to be entered, and thus numbers only improve, we still have good and happy graphs to push out there.

Jan_2013_S_and_InvAbove are the sales and inventory numbers for Feb 2011 through Jan 2013. What this marks is the first time in a long time that we have seen 12 straight months of increased year-over-year sales growth and inventory reduction. While the January chart may look like sales are slightly down, that is a graphical anomaly I blame on shading. As of today, we have one more sale in detached homes in Jan 2013 than in Jan 2012. (Small, yes… but still growth.)

Over the last twelve months, the increase in sales reflects a more than 20% increase for City and Albemarle. A shift from 1002 to 1214 sales.

Compared that with the attached home market, where the twelve months ending yesterday look promising with a total increase in sales in the City and Albemarle of  roughly 9.7%. But that doesn’t really tell the whole story. When you look at month by month movement for the last 12 months, you find only 8 periods of year-over-year growth. In general, the overall trend is positive, but the trajectory is not nearly as clear. Additionally, the attached home inventory is 5% higher than it was at this time last year, and that brought the months of inventory up by a month and a half to 13.9 months.

The condo market moved similarly to the attached home market. Total sales over the year were up 14.9%, but that reflected only 8 months of year-over-year growth. (The condo market, however, is very small and thus new projects, lower prices on existing projects, etc… can sway the numbers months to month greatly.)

As a final quick note, Contract Written. In Jan 2011, we saw 71 contracts written on detached homes. In 2012, that number jumped to 102. This past month, we have records of 98 thus far. This is a big jump. The reason for this is that the way in which our MLS keeps records, many properties are Contingent for more than 2 weeks before they are moved to the Pending status. It is not until that time that they get a Contract Written Date that we can track. If you figure the average closing is 45 days, and 15 of those days are not accounted for, that is as much as 30% of deals. So, it is possibile that our 98 may go up to 120-130 before all is said an done. Of course it could go up to only 110… we can’t know. There are currently 126 properties under contract that do not have Contract Written dates. Not all from January to be sure.

No matter how you look at it, our numbers are still looking very strong, and the anecdotal evidence seen by real estate professionals supports that this is not likely to change in the short run.

Vacant Showings

I went out yesterday and showed 5 properties to buyer clients. Nothing odd about that. Except that, for the first time in my recent memory, all the properties were vacant, and none were new construction.

Hmmm. My partner Jim Duncan has written about this phenomenon in the past, and I have certainly commented on it. But, frankly, I’m surprised that I’m still writing about it.

VacantHome

The houses I showed yesterday were all in the $300-400,000 range. These are not homes where owners regularly pay cash, nor are they owned by folks for whom owning “an extra home” is not a problem. And so I have to wonder, “What is going on here.”Hmmm. My partner Jim Duncan has written about this phenomenon in the past, and I have certainly commented on it. But, frankly, I’m surprised that I’m still writing about it.

Currently, we have a very small inventory. Across the city and Albemarle County and all product types, there are only 903 properties for sale. Take out those that are “proposed” (meaning not yet started pre-sell new construction) and that number drops to 715 properties. And within that group, there are currently 206 homes that are listed as Vacant for showing instructions or 28.8%. This is certainly down from several years ago when the bubble burst, but not as much as I thought it would be.

There are several reasons for a home being left vacant. 1) The owner has taken a job in another town. 2) The owner purchased another home and has moved out. 3) House was originally a rental property and the owner has ceased renting pending a sale. Or 4) The owners have moved to a retirement facility or passed away. I’m sure there are other reasons that I’m not mentioning here, but these are the big causes.

In case 1, occasionally a new company will be paying expenses during the move, so the vacancy is less painful. But in all the other cases, this is a real expense eating away at cash flow and wealth. Even if you pay cash for a home there is still a cost of capital to the investment costs, plus taxes, utilities, maintenance, and heaven forbid repairs if something should go wrong such as a water leak. There is a reason many home insurance companies drop vacant homes from their rolls, or significantly increase the premium.

During the run-up to the bubble, when people thought houses were guaranteed to sell in 7 days, a vacant house was not necessarily a bad plan, but today, homes need to show their best. And vacant home rarely show as well as furnished homes. One of the homes I went to yesterday had filthy carpets, sticky countertops, and the only blinds that remained with the house were those that were broken. My client instantly knew the property had not been cared for. The price expectation went down a solid 10% upon seeing the condition. (If this is what I see, what do I not see?)

There is not doubt that there will always be some vacant homes on the market, but if you need to leave your home vacant: Maintain it like you live there. Keep it fresh and clean. Run water in all the sinks and tubs once a week to keep the gasses from come through the pipes. Furnish it as best you can. If it looks great when it is vacant, buyers will know you cared about the home when you lived there.

 

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